The Official Blog of the 2013 NAQT HSNCT

May 26, 2011

HSNCT Previews: Waiting in the Wings

Filed under: Pre-Tournament Coverage — Harry @ 8:59 pm

It is time for more wild guessing! These are the teams that are a long shot to win it all, but are likely to still be playing deep into Sunday and to give the top teams a run for their money.

(Note: The numbers in parentheses correspond to the rankings given in the HSQB poll and Fred Morlan’s rankings, respectively.)

Dorman (#7, #7):
Pros: Dorman is always one of the top teams in the country, having finished near the top as far as anyone can remember. They have travelled from their home in South Carolina all the way to Texas, Massachusetts, and Indiana, with hardware to show for it. Because of their extensive journeys, they have either beaten or played very competitively against most of the op teams in the country. They have a whole lot of experience this year, and it will only work to their advantage.
Cons: While Dorman has a history of doing very well, they also have a history of just falling short. It may surprise some people to learn that they have only won one national championship, back in 2003. They have also lost several matches against weaker teams, and that could once again be their downfall.
Prediction: T-5th. There is no reason to doubt that they will go far, but in the end they will probably just fall short of the final four.

Seven Lakes (#8, #8):
Pros: Jiawei Li has been putting very impressive statlines this year, and his teammates have been doing very well as well. Like Dorman, they are well-traveled, having played at Indiana, Illinois, and Virginia, and doing very well in the process. They have beaten teams such as Stevenson and in-state rivals LASA, and they do not appear to be prone to being upset. They finished tied for 11th last year with almost the exact same team, so there’s no reason to believe they won’t do just as well again.
Cons: Even though they have put up great numbers, you can’t help but think that they’re a tier below the top. They have not had much success against LASA and Dorman, posting a combined 1-11 record against those two teams on NAQT questions. They have a very hard time against teams better than them, and it will make things hard for them in the later rounds on Sunday.
Prediction: T-5th. They have a strong team and will make it far before starting to struggle in the later rounds against familiar but difficult competition.

Centennial (#9, #9):
Pros: Adam Silverman is a beast. At one tournament earlier in the year, he put up an amazing 172 PPG. They have for the most part dominated the competition in the state of Georgia, and the fact that they’re about a half-hour from the tournament site doesn’t hurt either. They have also defeated Dorman on multiple occasions (though it appears it wasn’t the full Dorman A team).
Cons: Centennial is basically a one-man team, and as previous nationals have shown, one-man teams can only take you so far. In addition, they have not faced very much top competition, so it would be hard to say how they would do against the Seven Lakes and the Bellarmines there.
Prediction: T-8th. Adam is really good, but he can only carry his team so far.

Thomas Jefferson (#10, #10):
Pros: TJ has won the HSNCT a record four times dating back to 2003, and they have had a nationally competitive team that goes back decades. They have a very balanced roster that has played together as a team for two and a half years. They’ve managed to hang in with the best, beating the likes of 6th-ranked Hunter.
Cons: TJ has had disappointing finishes in their last two HSNCTs, leaving much earlier than anticipated. They have had few quality victories, as well as losses to teams that they should have been able to beat (such as their own B team).
Prediction: T-13th. It will still be a bit of a disappointment, but compared to previous finishes, it will be a relief.

Detroit Catholic Central (#12, #14):
Pros: Detroit Catholic Central is that team who always finishes very high in the standings, despite the fact that on paper they shouldn’t be doing that well. They have six players who each deserve their place on the A team, with each of them putting over 20 PPG at the Midwest Championship. They too are well-traveled, having made multiple journeys to the east coast.
Cons: They have not had too many impressive finishes at tournaments, and they haven’t had much luck in the few times they’ve faced top competition. In addition, by having six players, one-third of their talent will not be playing at any given time, and that might cause some problems at exactly the wrong time.
Prediction: T-8th. There’s no reason to believe why they wouldn’t be able to make it into the top dozen teams, and they will probably end up about the same spot as they did last year.

Richard Montgomery (#13, #13):
Pros: They are a regional powerhouse, winning or being close to winning most of the tournaments in the DC metro area. They have had impressive bonus conversions, getting over 19 PPB at every tournament they’ve gone to. They’re also very consistent; it’s hard to find a tournament where they were having a bad day.
Cons: The downside of consistency is that it is hard to find any marquee wins for them. They might pounce on weaker teams, but in later rounds they could very well run into trouble.
Prediction: T-8th. It’s simply a matter of there being about 10 or 11 teams that are better than them.

Northmont (#14, #11):
Pros: Once again, they are a team that does a very good job of beating teams that aren’t as good as they are. They rarely get upset, which is a very useful skill in the double-elimination rounds. They also have very impressive bonus conversion as well as two players that each put up over 35 PPG.
Cons: They have not played very many top-tier teams, and while they have impressive stats, they pale in comparison to the best teams.
Prediction: T-8th. Northmont, Copley, and Olmsted Falls each have a good reason to be included in the top 12, but in the end I think it will be this team making it.

Note: The numbers in parentheses correspond to the rankings given in the HSQB poll and Fred Morlan’s rankings, respectively.)


1 Comment »

  1. What year is Adam Silverman?

    Comment by Nick Neuteufel — May 29, 2011 @ 8:57 pm | Reply

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