The Official Blog of the 2013 NAQT HSNCT

May 24, 2013

Predictions: Who will win?

Filed under: Pre-Tournament Coverage — Harry @ 9:37 pm

During the regional preview posts, I said that Ladue and Bellarmine would finish in the top 2. Now it is time to look at the two teams in-depth and give a prediction of who will win it all.

Let’s start by looking at the one tournament where players from both teams competed: ACF Regionals. If we take into account common opponents, we get the following:

Team PPG 10/G -5/G PPB
Bellarmine 294.17 11.17 2.17 17.31
Max Schindler 259.58 10.58 1.58 15.28

This does not include the game where they played each other, in which Bellarmine won 215-185. Just by looking at those numbers and nothing else, one would be inclined to pick Bellarmine to take the championship.

One very important thing needs to be considered, though: Bellarmine was playing with what is basically their HSNCT roster, while Ladue will have more than just Max. He will have three teammates. One could argue that Ben Zhang by himself will be able to make up the difference, but I wanted to run a few numbers just to make sure.

At the Mort Walker Invitational, Max Schindler playing by himself got 25.87 points per bonus. Meanwhile, at the Missouri State Qualifier, a full Ladue team managed 26.57 points per bonus. In other words, Max’s teammates managed to get 0.7 out of 4.13 points per bonus that Max was not able to get, or about 17%. This would mean that hypothetically, if there were a full Ladue team at ACF Regionals, they would have answered 17% of bonus parts that had actually gone dead, which would give them another 2.5 points per bonus. This would put them ahead of Bellarmine by half a point per bonus.

Obviously, the above is only a basic approximation and is probably not the most sound, but it does help confirm the initial hunch that a full Ladue team would have done better than Bellarmine at ACF Regionals. It is fairly hard to accurately determine how good Bellarmine actually is, mainly because Bellarmine has hardly played any tournaments this year. While inexperience does not necessarily eliminate a team from contention (see: 2011 State College), I can’t see it helping. Therefore, my prediction is that Ladue will win the 2013 HSNCT, while Bellarmine will finish second. I do think the final will go to a second game, though.



  1. That was not a full Ladue A team at NAQT State. There were only 3 players, with Haohang being missing.

    Comment by Charlie Dees — May 25, 2013 @ 8:44 am | Reply

    • And that would help their case even further.

      Comment by Harry — May 25, 2013 @ 9:03 am | Reply

  2. Also, the set at Mort Walker was GSAC, which, in my opinion, is a decent bit easier than the IS sets were this year. Max is good but I think his teammates will be getting a larger proportion of bonus parts, especially on NAQT at nationals.

    Comment by Charlie Dees — May 25, 2013 @ 9:13 am | Reply

    • I agree with you. I tended to be fairly conservative with Max’s teammates’ contributions, and even then they would have done better than Bellarmine.

      Comment by Harry — May 25, 2013 @ 3:41 pm | Reply

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