Saturday wrap-up and Sunday preview

The first day of competition is over, and the field has been reduced from 256 to 97 teams. Let’s take a look at what happened today and what it might mean for the playoff rounds tomorrow:

• LASA has some incredible depth. Getting the top overall seed is one thing, but they managed to also have three teams seeded in the top 16. LASA C, which went 8-2 today, consists entirely of freshmen and sophomores.
• Ladue is the real deal. They had the highest PPB of the tournament (24.33), and the only team they lost to was one they beat earlier in the day. They, along with LASA A, are the two favorites to win it all tomorrow.
• Bellarmine, on the other hand, had a disappointing 7-3 performance, with losses to Dorman (by 430 points), Arcadia, and St. John’s. They did have the 9th-highest PPG and PPB, so all is not lost for them. No 7-3 team has won the title since the current playoff system has been adapted, though.
• Blair had a really good day, thanks partially to the contributions of their science player Sam Zbarsky. He hadn’t played much all year, but the 30 PPG probably pushed them to 9-1.
• Belvidere North wound up with a lucky schedule. The only 8-2 or better team they played with Cistercian, and in their 9th and 10th games, they played teams with one fewer win. They’re a good team, but I doubt they’re fourth in the nation as their seeding states.
• The top five teams struggled with negs. Only two of the top eight teams last year had more negs in the prelims than any of the 9-1 teams. This could cause some issues, when a neg streak could end a team’s chances at taking the title.(Special thanks for Matt Jackson for pointing this out.)
• Of the past seven HSNCT winners, four finished Saturday 8-2 and three finished 9-1. No 6-4, 7-3, or 10-0 team has won since 2005. This would suggest LASA or Ladue has the best chance, but a team like Dorman or Cistercian are still reasonable candidates.
• This year’s bracket of death is probably the group of five teams that includes Montgomery Blair, Bellarmine, and East Chapel Hill. Only one will make it out while the others are consigned to the loser’s bracket
• Just because a team has a certain record does not mean they aren’t better than teams with higher records. Dorman has put up 30 more points per game and 3 more points per bonus than Belvidere North. One would expect the former to go further in the tournament, though the latter has the help of an additional bye.

Also, playoff brackets can be found here. See you guys tomorrow!